Anthropic IPO Odds Drop on Prediction Markets Amid Regulatory Headwinds

Prediction platform Kalshi saw a steep decline in probabilities related to an imminent initial public offering by artificial intelligence developer Anthropic. Contracts pricing the likelihood of a public listing announcement before December tumbled to 57%, down from above 85% registered in the preceding week. Probability contracts covering an announcement prior to January similarly dropped from 90% down to 68% following broader declines across artificial intelligence equities.

The recalibration of expectations reflects market anxiety over Democratic victories in midterm congressional races and state governorships, most notably in Texas where incoming Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on halting data center expansion pending new oversight. Anthropic previously submitted a confidential IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, but shifting credit spreads and policy headwinds in key infrastructure states have clouded listing timelines.